End of civilization

This article contains a list of potential causes of the end of civilization, centered on non-religious concepts. For other meanings, see End of the World (disambiguation)

The end of civilization or the end of the world are phrases used in reference to human extinction scenarios and related hazards which occur on a global scale.

Contents

1 Types of risks 2 Future scenarios 2.1 Space 2.2 Earth 2.3 Man 2.4 Religion 2.5 Fictional 3 Historical scenarios 4 Notes 5 References 6 External links

Types of risks

Various risks exist for mankind and civilization, but not all risks are equal. Risks can be roughly categorized into six types based on the scope of the risk (Personal, Regional, Global) and the intensity of the risk (Endurable or Terminal). This chart provides some examples.

Typology of risk¹

	Endurable	Terminal
Global	Thinning of Ozone Layer	"End of civilization"
Regional	Economic recession	Genocide
Personal	House burns down	Cancer/death

The risks in this list are associated with those in the Global-Terminal category. This type of risk is one where an adverse outcome would either annihilate intelligent life, or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. It is a risk where humankind as a whole is imperilled and/or would have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization. ¹

Future scenarios

There are many potential end-of-civilization scenarios that have been suggested could happen in the future. Some are far more possible than others; listed here are the most well known. See also: Human extinction scenarios.

Space

• The Sun. In about five billion years, our sun will expand into a red giant, completely enveloping the Earth, and thus ending all life here. The same star evolution theories state that the Sun is increasing its luminosity, at a very slow rate. Thus, some astronomers predict that in fewer than one billion years, the Earth will be too hot for life as we know it to survive. See also the Ultimate fate of the universe. This is the only event listed here that scientists believe will definitely take place.
• Meteorite Impact. Meteorite strikes Earth.
• Nemesis. According to theory, the Nemesis star periodically passes through a denser region of the Oort cloud, potentially sending millions of comets into collision with Earth, causing mass extinctions in the past.
• Gliese 710. Star moving on a collision course with the Solar System - eventually this star may destroy the Earth.[1]
• Black Hole. Wayward black hole enters solar system.
• Gamma ray bursts. Gamma ray bursts strike the Earth, causing mass extinction. Some scientists believe this happened 450 million years ago.[2]
• Extraterrestrial life. Aliens, intelligent or otherwise, invade Earth.
• Kuiper Belt. Between Pluto and Neptune lies a vast reserve of large icy objects that could break loose and strike Earth.
• Dark nebula. A giant molecular cloud chokes out Earth's atmosphere.
• Solar flare. Giant solar flare fries the Earth.

Earth

• Ice Age. An Ice Age reoccurs every 40-100,000 years.
• Pandemic. A global epidemic wipes out mankind - for example, AIDS mutates and becomes as transmissible as the common cold.
• Magnetic pole shift. Earth’s magnetic field stops, and flips over.
• Megatsunami.
• Supervolcano.
• Verneshot.

Man

• Catastrophe theory predicts a software-complexity tipping point when the integrated world becomes vulnerable to disastrous bugs in the system.
  • Artificial Intelligence. Learning computers take unforeseen, destructive action.
  • Robots. Intelligent robots out-compete humanity.
• Biotechnology. Unforeseen consequence of Genetic engineering, or purpose built biotech weapons threaten species.
• Demography. Demographic trends create a baby bust.
• Ecology. Natural resources are used up, or the environment is so damaged through pollution and destruction that civilization fails.
  • Climate change. Warming leads to mass extinctions.
• Finance. Markets fail worldwide, resulting in economic collapse: mass unemployment, rioting, famine, and death.
• Infertility. Human fertility continues to decline, eventually ending with no fertile humans left to continue the species.
• Insanity. Mass insanity.
• Nanotechnology. Grey goo or deliberately built nanotechnolgy malware takes over world.
• Nuclear war. Cold War horrors come to pass.
• Peak oil. Oil runs out before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading to global chaos.
• Quantum energy. In the search for new quantum particles, scientists accidently destroy the universe.
• Quantum vacuum. During an experiment in high-energy physics, scientists accidently trigger a quantum vacuum collapse.
• Strange matter. Our entire planet including everything on it became a strange matter planet in a chain reaction theoretical physicists call "Ice-9 Type Transition".
• Technological singularity. Technology advances so rapidly that present-day humans are wiped out.
• Telomere. Reinhard Stindl theorizes a tiny loss of telomere length from one generation to the next, mirroring the process of ageing in individuals. Over thousands of generations the telomere erodes down to its critical level. Once at the critical level we would expect to see outbreaks of age-related diseases occurring earlier in life and finally a population crash.²
• World government. Misguided world government caps progress, leading to stagnation and reversals of Civilization.

Religion

See main article End of the world (religion).

Fictional

See main article End of the world (fiction).

Historical scenarios

Every generation has faced its own fears of an unknown future; the historical record of prior end of civilization scenarios is plentiful. Some of these include:

• Many fictional (and non-fictional) stories from the era of the Cold War were based on the belief that a nuclear war was inevitable, and that this would result in the destruction of all life on the planet Earth (see World War III for a list)
• Nostradamus wrote a prediction that a great catastrophe would occur in July the year 1999. Many followers of his writings took this to mean that the end of the world would occur. When the chosen date came and went, translators of his works began revising them with new interpretations of what the prediction actually meant. Some people also believe according to Nostradamus, that the world will end in the year 3797. No explanation of how is given.
• The Y2k bug, which was supposed to wreak havoc on computer systems and disrupt life as we know it. See also Millennialism.
• The Mayan long count calendar ends abruptly on 21 December (or 23 December) 2012. Many people have taken this as a sign that the world will end though it is not known if the Mayans believed this.

Notes

• Note 1: Nick Bostrom (2001).
• Note 2: "What a way to go", The Guardian (April 14, 2005). See External links.

References

• Nick Bostrom (2001). "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards". Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002
• Corey S. Powell (2000). "Twenty ways the world could end suddenly", Discover Magazine
• Martin Rees (2004). OUR FINAL HOUR: A Scientist's warning : How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century--On Earth and Beyond. ISBN 0465068634
• Jean-Francois Rischard (2003). High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them. ISBN 0465070108
• Edward O. Wilson (2003). The Future of Life. ISBN 0679768114

External links

• Exit Mundi A Collection of End-Of-World scenarios.
• Armageddon Online A collection and resource for End-Of-World scenarios and events.
• Library of Date Setters of The End of the World. Over 200 past dates when the End of the World was going to happen.
• "What a way to go" from The Guardian. Ten scientists name the biggest danger to Earth and assesses the chances of it happening. April 14, 2005.

See also: End of civilization, 1999, 2012, 21 December, 23 December, 3797, AIDS, Artificial Intelligence