John Graunt
John Graunt (1620-1674) was one of the first demographers. Born in London, Graunt, along with William Petty, developed early human statistical and census methods that later provided a framework for modern demography. His book Natural and Political Observations ... upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) used analysis of the mortality rolls in early modern London as Charles II and other officials attempted to create a system to warn of the onset and spread of bubonic plague in the city. Though the system was never truly created, Graunt's work in studying the rolls resulted in the first statistically-based estimation of the population of London. The erudition of the Observations led Graunt to the Royal Society, where he presented his work and was subsequently elected a fellow. Graunt died, reportedly of jaundice and liver disease, in April 1674 in London.
Discussion
For Graunt’s place in the history of statistics see
- Heyde, C. C. (2001) John Graunt, Statisticians of the Centuries (ed. C. C. Heyde and E. Seneta) pp. 14-16. New York: Springer.
- Hald, A. (1990) A History of Probability and Statistics and their applications before 1750, New York: Wiley. Chapter 7, John Graunt and the Observations upon the Bills of Mortality, 1662.
- Hacking, I. (1975) The Emergence of Probability, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press: Chapter 12, Political Arithmetic 1662.
External links
The text of the "Observations" and other Graunt materials are available on Ed Stephan's website
For highlights in the history of demography from 3800 BC to 2000 AD see