Lake Wobegon effect
The Lake Wobegon effect, also called the Lake Wobegon fallacy and the better-than-average effect, is a term used by psychologists to refer to the human tendency to report flattering beliefs about oneself and believe that one is above average. Many experiments have shown that most people believe that they possess more desirable attributes than other people. The term is also related to the tendency to treat all members of a group as above average (a statistical impossibility), particularly with respect to numerical values such as test scores or executive salaries.
According to one frequently cited statistic that demonstrates this cognitive bias found by a study conducted by Ola Svenson, 80% of students believed they were in the top 30% of safe drivers. The effect has been found repeatedly by many other studies for other traits, including fairness, virtuosity, luckier and better investors, to name a few.
In 1987, John Cannell completed a study later popularized as the Lake Wobegon effect. He reported the statistically impossible finding that all states claimed average student test scores above the national norm. In addition to teaching for the test, he concluded that some teachers encouraged low-ability students to be absent on test days, helped students take the test and allowed outright cheating.
One College Board survey asked 829,000 high school seniors to rate themselves in a number of ways. When asked to rate their own ability to "get along with others," a statistically insignificant number—less than one percent—rated themselves as below average. Further, 60% rated themselves in the top 10% and 25% rated themselves in the top 1%. Some have argued that more subjective traits like this may be more easily distorted.
The effect is similar and may be related to ingroup bias and wishful thinking. In contrast, the worse-than-average effect refers to a tendency to underestimate oneself in certain conditions, which may include self-handicapping behavior.
The term is named after the fictitious Minnesota town Lake Wobegon invented by radio humorist Garrison Keillor, who described it as a place "where the women are strong, the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."
Compare to the false consensus effect.
See also
References
- Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47, 143-48.
- Myers, D. G. (1980). The Inflated Self. New York: Seabury Press.